The final game this weekend will see the seemingly invincible San Diego Chargers (13/5 Superbowl favourites) host the most successful team of the last decate, Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots. It’s a mouth-watering tie that’s very difficult to call.
Will first-year quarterback Philip Rivers do better than many quarterbacks and cope with the post-season pressure at the first attempt? His natural composure, shown again and again as he led his team from behind to several late victories – including overturning a 27-point deficit against the Chiefs – suggests that he’ll be ok. The home draw helps too. But his opposite number, Tom Brady, is in his element at the business end of the season and is sure to put in a top-notch performance, even without the protection or quality of receivers that he’s had in the past. The thing about Brady is that almost anybody can catch his passes, he’s that good.
San Diego have won their last ten games and running back LaDanian Tomlinson has shattered records with his incredible form this year (31 TDs, over 2100 total yards). There’s no reason to expect him to be anything but better after a week’s rest. The Chargers defense has a strong blitz, led by the astonishingly mobile Shawne Merriman, the only linebacker in the game at the moment who deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Chicago’s Brian Urlacher. But if any QB can cope with the blitz, it’s Tom Brady who’s aware, mobile, can pass quickly and is comfortable in the deeper shotgun formation.
Meanwhile, Philip Rivers is more likely to be unsettled by defensive aggression. New England’s front seven are much better than people give them credit for and it’s no real surprise to see that the Patriots have the second best defense in the league. They’re a tough proposition who have been underrated all year but who certainly have the ability to beat San Diego and finally make people sit up and take notice.
I think that this is one of the harder games to call this week. I’m siding with the Chargers but only just – I honestly think these are two of the three sides who are good enough to win the Superbowl this year. It’s a fascinating matchup.
If you’re betting on the match, there’s not much in the general odds but Corey Dillon and LaDanian Tomlinson are nomrally each good for a touchdown, and probably worth backing in the first touchdown market too. And with the offensive quality on offer, it’s worth considering the evens that you can get on the longest touchdown being 40+ yards.
One last thing – the Patriots are 10/1 to win the Superbowl. Even with Baltimore likely up next, those odds will tumble if they beat the Chargers. I can see them going at least as low as 4/1, which gives implied odds of over 2/1 on this match at worst. It’s definitely worth considering because they’re a decent side who I’d back if they were available at over 2/1 on the regular markets. Go for it!
