Rugby World Cup – Update

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The second round of matches is underway in the Rugby World Cup and Sportinvestor’s main comment is that the lesser nations are acquitting themselves very well in France.  Georgia, Portugal, Namibia and Romania have all put in very good performances and we hope that they have the stamina to maintain their level of performance through to the end of the group stages.

England play South Africa tonight, and the Springboks are clear favourites against an English side that has stuttered badly since winning the trophy four years ago.  It could be a crucial match for England, with Samoa likely to put up a strong fight later in the group stages.  We think South Africa will ease to victory here and don’t see much betting value, although the odds on England are almost generous enough to tempt a flutter at 6/1.

We’ve also been studying the draw carefully to see if there is any value in bets on the two finalists.  And the result is that we’ve made a couple of medium-sized wagers.  The Argentine victory over France threw Group D wide open and any one of Argentina, France or Ireland could now finish in top spot.  It is now far less likely that France will be able to avoid the mighty New Zealand up until the final, as we would previously have expected, and the odds of a New Zealand-South Africa final have shortened considerably as a result.

We think that NZ and SA are most likely to contest the final but we think that the odds of 2/1 are too tight to offer any value.  And it is not inconceivable that Ireland will find some form.  If they win their group, the draw opens up for Eddie O’Sullivan’s men and they would most likely play South Africa for a place in the final two.  We think that 14/1 just about offers some value in the wake of Argentina’s shock win over France, although it’s still a borderline call.

Elsewhere, Australia looked strong in their match against Japan (albeit Japan’s second string) and this weekend’s match against Wales in Cardiff will be a very interesting gauge of their form.  If results go as expected (a very big if!) then Australia will meet New Zealand in the semi-finals and I think that they’d present a stern test for the All Blacks.  NZ would rightfully be favourites but they have been known to choke in the biggest matches – albeit mainly against France – and it’s not inconceivable that Australia, led by the evergreen Stephen Larkham, make the final.

With that in mind, we very much like the 16/1 odds of Australia meeting South Africa in the final.  Australia are a strong side and we find it surprising that there is such a gap between these odds and the 2/1 that you can get on New Zealand meeting South Africa.

This is a very good value bet indeed. 

All in all, the early games have done nothing to dispel pre-tournament speculation that the southern hemisphere would dominate the World Cup this time round.  And New Zealand, while worthy favourites, might not be as far ahead of their closest rivals as some might think.

Recommended bets:

• Australia to meet South Africa in final (16/1)
• New Zealand to meet Ireland in final (smallish bet at 14/1)

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