The NFL season is upon us and week 1 threw up some surprise results and interesting snippets.  Chief among them is the impressive Brady-Moss combination for the New England Patriots, and a key defeat for the Kansas City Chiefs, who look weaker than we expected this year.

Denver Broncos had a very good summer but very nearly became one of the biggest stories of week 1 until John Elam hit a winning field goal with the clock running to edge his team past a spirited Buffalo outfit.  Elsewhere, the Chargers started off with an expected win, the Colts hammered the Saints in an impressive start to their Superbowl defence, and the Packers surprisingly edged past the Eagles – thanks mainly to an incredible TWO muffed punts!

The biggest match this week is without doubt the matchup between the New England Patriots and the San Diego Chargers.  The Chargers, who finished the regular season last year with the best record (14-2) will be eager for revenge against the team that knocked them out of the play-offs.  But it won’t be that easy.  New England had possibly the best summer out of any NFL franchise and their new-look offense should put up monster numbers this year.

The recent spying scandal surrounding New England adds extra spice to the encounter.  The Patriots might well lose a round 1 draft pick next season, not a disaster as they’ll have two, but definitely a strict punishement for videoing the Jets’ coaching signals.

Unusually for a big matchup, there is plenty of betting value in this game.

While we think that the Patriots will win, we’re surprised that the Chargers – whose defense looked good last week – are available at 2/1.  We’ve snapped that up, although partially hedged it with a small bet on the Patriots winning by 7-12 points at the tempting price of 4/1.

Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady has a huge arsenal of top-quality receivers this year and none started better by former Vikings icon Randy Moss.  In fact, his nine-catch performance last week will almost certainly lead him to be double-teamed by the defense, opening opportunities for pacey Donte Stallworth, a summer addition from Philadelphia.  We therefore think that the odds on Stallworth scoring a TD during the game offer real value at 5/2.

The Denver Broncos are playing the Oakland Raiders this weekend and the result shoult be a formality.  Denver have strengthened an already-strong team over the summer and won their first match this season, while Oakland had the worst record in the NFL last year and lost their opener to the low-rated Detroit Lions.  Yet we feel the match will be closer than people think.  Daunte Culpepper showed in the pre-season that he can still throw a football and is likely to start this match under center for the Raiders in the absence of regular starter Luke McCown.

In addition, Oakland’s defense was strong last season and may fare better than most in shutting down stud rusher Travis Henry.  We do think Denver will emerge victorious but are attracted to the odds of 11/2 on them winning by only 1-6 points.  In a match which is likely to be a defensive battle, a low points total is also likely. 

The Atlanta Falcons, reeling from the loss of Michael Vick, were as poor as we expected against Minnesota in week 1.  We see no reason for them to improve against Jacksonville, who must win after a disappointing loss to Tennessee.  With Atlanta’s confidence flagging, and real weaknesses in their secondary, new QB David Garrard should have a confidence-boosting game for the Jaguars and we like the odds on top wide receiver Dennis Northcutt scoring a touchdown this weekend (3.3/1).

Finally, we really rate the Panthers this year and Steve Smith showed against the Rams last week how important he is to their chances.  But the Houston Texans are on a three-game winning streak (counting the end of last season) and have playmakers on either side of the ball in Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub and Mario Williams.  They are available at 2.6/1 to win the match and you might want to think about that one.  The result is likely to be closer than many anticipate.

Recommended bets:

• Chargers to beat Patriots (2/1 value bet)
• Donte Stallworth to score a touchdown (5/2)
• Dennis Northcutt to score a touchdown in the Jaguars-Falcons game (3.3/1)
• Broncos to beat Raiders by 1-6 points (11/2)
• Fewer than 39 total points in Broncos-Raiders game (11/2)
• Bills to beat Steelers (9/2 looks a little long for an underrated Buffalo side)

PS On Monday, Philadelphia play Washington in a key NFC East matchup.  Neither team impressed in week 1 and we’re looking for the Redskins to pull out a shock result to give their season some real momentum.

The second round of matches is underway in the Rugby World Cup and Sportinvestor’s main comment is that the lesser nations are acquitting themselves very well in France.  Georgia, Portugal, Namibia and Romania have all put in very good performances and we hope that they have the stamina to maintain their level of performance through to the end of the group stages.

England play South Africa tonight, and the Springboks are clear favourites against an English side that has stuttered badly since winning the trophy four years ago.  It could be a crucial match for England, with Samoa likely to put up a strong fight later in the group stages.  We think South Africa will ease to victory here and don’t see much betting value, although the odds on England are almost generous enough to tempt a flutter at 6/1.

We’ve also been studying the draw carefully to see if there is any value in bets on the two finalists.  And the result is that we’ve made a couple of medium-sized wagers.  The Argentine victory over France threw Group D wide open and any one of Argentina, France or Ireland could now finish in top spot.  It is now far less likely that France will be able to avoid the mighty New Zealand up until the final, as we would previously have expected, and the odds of a New Zealand-South Africa final have shortened considerably as a result.

We think that NZ and SA are most likely to contest the final but we think that the odds of 2/1 are too tight to offer any value.  And it is not inconceivable that Ireland will find some form.  If they win their group, the draw opens up for Eddie O’Sullivan’s men and they would most likely play South Africa for a place in the final two.  We think that 14/1 just about offers some value in the wake of Argentina’s shock win over France, although it’s still a borderline call.

Elsewhere, Australia looked strong in their match against Japan (albeit Japan’s second string) and this weekend’s match against Wales in Cardiff will be a very interesting gauge of their form.  If results go as expected (a very big if!) then Australia will meet New Zealand in the semi-finals and I think that they’d present a stern test for the All Blacks.  NZ would rightfully be favourites but they have been known to choke in the biggest matches – albeit mainly against France – and it’s not inconceivable that Australia, led by the evergreen Stephen Larkham, make the final.

With that in mind, we very much like the 16/1 odds of Australia meeting South Africa in the final.  Australia are a strong side and we find it surprising that there is such a gap between these odds and the 2/1 that you can get on New Zealand meeting South Africa.

This is a very good value bet indeed. 

All in all, the early games have done nothing to dispel pre-tournament speculation that the southern hemisphere would dominate the World Cup this time round.  And New Zealand, while worthy favourites, might not be as far ahead of their closest rivals as some might think.

Recommended bets:

• Australia to meet South Africa in final (16/1)
• New Zealand to meet Ireland in final (smallish bet at 14/1)

Today England get the chance to knock Australia out at the group stages of a cricket competition.  It doesn’t happen often and it would be delightful to see Collingwood’s men rise to the challenge.  They’re batting first and should go through to the next stage unless absolutely thrashed, thanks to the big victory over Zimbabwe yesterday.

As promised yesterday, this post is a considered analysis of AB de Villiers’ comments that South Africa would look to capitalise on the perceived advantage of batting second during the ongoing Twenty20 World Cup.

The theory behind de Villiers’ comments is compelling.  Twenty20 is a short slog game, which is entertaining to watch but offers the batsmen no time to assess the pitch while playing themselves in.  The suggestion that this would be an advantage to the team batting second is logical insofar as that team would be able to assess the pitch while bowling, both from the ball’s behaviour and from the batting side’s performance.

 A quick glance at recent statistics would seem to confirm the case.  On this year’s domestic Twenty20 Finals day, all three matches were won by the team batting second – Gloucestershire, Kent and Kent. 

In addition, four of the first five matches in the Twenty20 World Cup (including the two involving the West Indies, who were sensationally eliminated by a spirited Bangladesh side today) have been won by the team batting second.  This has included surprises from Bangladesh and Zimbabwe, while the only match to have been won by the side batting first was the mismatch between Pakistan and Scotland.

However, while the World Cup does raise certain questions about trends in international cricket, English domestic Twenty20 results refute the argument of a systemic bias.  Out of 200 results in the last three years (exclusing ties and washouts), 104 matches have been won by the team batting first and 96 by the team batting second – practically a 50-50 split.  Moreover, if we just concentrate on the important matches – ie finals day – five have been won by the team batting first and four by the team batting second (showing that this year’s results were in fact a departure from the earlier trend).  Indeed, the finals day this year was a microcosm of the entire Twenty20 season: this was the first year out of three that the team batting second won more matches that the team batting first.  It is not inconceivable that this is a result of the wet English summer, which has produced slower wickets which might benefit the chasing side.  But there is clearly no evidence to suggest an overall bias.

In conclusion, it is likely that there are sets of circumstances that benefit batting second, as there are in 50-over cricket and in Test cricket.  In the case of Twenty20, it would require sharp analysis and a steady head not to over-force the pace on a slower wicket.  But there are always occasions when the toss seems to determine the outcome of the match and a sharp captain could quickly eliminate any perceived advantage. 

The statistics do not suggest that Twenty20 cricket is more susceptible to this phenomenon than other forms of the game and we would not advise a betting strategy based on the apparently ill-informed comments from AB de Villiers, although we shall be interested to see if a stronger link between batting second and victory develops at international level than than at domestic level.

We were excited by the prospect of a Twenty20 World Cup but still have to admit that it has exceeded our wildest expectations after two days.

The opener between South Africa and West Indies was a wonderful exposition of brutal hitting, followed by three much closer, and lower-scoring, matches yesterday.  Scotland gave Pakistan a real fright, and the Asian side were somewhat fortunate to recover to post a total of over 170.  If the final four overs had gone differently – quite possible given that wickets had already tumbled – the Scots could have pulled off a famous upset.

Talking of famous upsets, Zimbabwe’s excellent victory over Australia puts the Aussies at real risk of exiting the tournament and shows the importance of a good start with the bat.  After losing four early wickets, Australia could never quite find their groove and Zimbabwe were never really hurried in chasing a target below 140.

Our decision to lay (bet against) strong favourites Australia for the tournament at 2/1 looks to be paying dividends.  We are not going to back them at longer odds to lock a profit as we feel the bet will come good anyway.  But such a move should be considered.

England play Zimbabwe today and it will be interesting to see if the African side pushes on from yesterday’s victory or whether another match has come too soon for them.  We like England for this one.

England’s 3-0 victory over Israel in Saturday’s Euro 08 qualifier was a welcome result for the country’s fans, who had endured a series of disappointments since the encouraging start to the campign under Steve McLaren.

Tonight’s match is probably the most important in the whole group, as it will go a long way to deciding who qualifies alongside Croatia.  England, with home advantage, are rightfully favourites but it would be absolutely wrong to write off a well-organised Russian team that is coached by Guus Hiddink, a well-regarded manager who has been renowned for getting big results in his recent spells with South Korea, Australia and PSV.  Russia will pose England’s defence far more questions than Israel did and it will be interesting to see if Ashley Cole and John Terry, both struggling for form, and Micah Richards, relatively young and inexperienced, can match them.

What we’re saying is simple.  England have a good squad and should win tonight.  But we were astonished to discover that Russia’s odds on Betfair are as wide at 7/1!  For a well-drilled team with a good coach and a goalscoring threat, the odds offer value, even if a draw is far more likely than a Russia victory.  We’re strongly advocating a small bet on Russia to take advantage of the odds – it’s a value bet.

Above all, tonight’s match should be tight and we would be amazed if you didn’t have an opportunity to lay back some of your stake at some point during the game.

Recommended bet

Small-ish value bet on Russia to beat England (7/1)

The water polo national league started at the weekend and defending champions Lancaster surprisingly dropped their first points for over a year after being held to a draw by last year’s runners-up Cheltenham.  Both sides won their remaining two games of the weekend.

With Rotherham and Bristol both winning their opening three games, hopes are high that the divison will be more competitive at the top this year.  Bristol meet Cheltenham on Sunday, in what may be a key marker for the young season, and we’re also looking forward to the Cheltenham-Rotherham game on the following Saturday (22 September).

It looks as though it might be competitive at the bottom too, with several draws meaning the bottom six teams are separated by 2 points after three games.

As you’d expect, newly promoted Otter (from London) struggled on their first weekend, with a good performance from their goalkeeper earning some respectability.  But they’ll be pleased with a point from the match against local rivals Penguin, and it’s Scottish side Portobello who sit in the relegation sport after losing their opening matches.  Otter play Polytechnic and Welsh Wanderers next time out (22-23 September) in what may be key games in determining their ability to avoid the drop this season.

Elsewhere, Newton Abbott and Croydon got off to flying starts in Divisions 3 and 4 respectively, while Division 2 starts this weekend.

If anybody can find a betting market on the water polo, it’s a great sport to follow and watch (matches are high-octane and take place at in clusters at weekends) and we’d love to see if any betting value is available.

The Twenty20 World Cup got under way yesterday with a feast of boundaries and a record first international Twenty20 century from Chris Gayle (an incredible 117 off 57 balls including 10 sixes). The West Indies still lost by 8 wickets to a strong-looking South Africa side.

Sportinvestor was delighted by the superb opening to what should be an entertaining tournament, but we wonder whether the batsmen will dominate bowlers more than we expected.  Two scores of over 200 in the opening match, with pulsating innings from Gayle and then Gibbs, suggest that they might.

One development worth noting is South Africa captain Graeme Smith’s belief that the team batting second in Twenty20 has a strong advantage.  We hope this isn’t the case because it would ruin a promising format, but we can understand the argument that 20 overs isn’t very long to adapt to the pitch.  Interestingly, Kent batted second both times on county cricket’s finals day, and we will do some research today to see if this is a common phenomenon.

It’ll be worth keeping an eye on the early competitive matches with a view to value bets after the toss on the team batting second when the Super 8 stage comes along.  We’ll keep you posted.

Today, New Zealand hammered a Kenya side who never recovered from losing their first four wickets for one run inside two overs (!).  Bond and Gillespie starred with the ball, and Lou Vincent looked as handy as you’d expect with the bat before giving his wicket away.

In the Pakistan-Scotland game about to start, we think Pakistan will come through relatively easily, with their superior quality showing over the limited experience and skill of the Scottish side. 

A bet that we like, especially with Pakistan batting first, is the 8/13 available on more than 10 wides.  The odds are short-ish but the West Indies sent down an incredible 23 wides yesterday and Scotland’s inexperienced bowlers might well take the match total well towards 10 before Pakistan have a go.

Ever since the compelling Twenty20 Finals Day, we at Sportinvestor have been looking forward to the World Cup with unbridled enthusiasm.  Our earlier unease at the short format was blown away but a couple of engaging tussles that showed Twenty20 certainly has a place on the world scene. It needs a good World Cup to gain credibility in many countries – notably the sub-continent – especially after the unexpected tension of the recent 50-over series between India and England.

The tournament should see some high scores and great performances.  But we won’t be surprised if the bowlers perform far better than many expect.  While many good county bowlers have come unstuck against the unmitigated aggression of the batsmen in the Twenty20 format, we have seen top class international bowlers curtailing the boundaries and taking wickets.  At the very top level, we expect the average run-rate to be 6-7 runs per over, rather than the 8-10 that we have seen in the county game.  It’s a bold prediction with the likes of Hayden, Gilchrist, Jayasuriya, Graeme Smith et al very competent when they have a thrash, but we do feel that world class bowling will make an even more intriguing series of matches.

So where is the betting value in this tournament?  

In this article, we’re concentrating on the overview rather than the match-by-match picture.  It’s the first Twenty20 World Cup and we could be totally wrong, but we’re happy to risk our money hunting some very good returns. 

Australia’s odds are too tight at 2/1.  They’ve got a team of weapons but we saw in the county version that the top teams don’t always go all the way.  Kent don’t have any players in the England side but were able to win the trophy ahead of many seemingly better sides.  We’re not saying Australia won’t win but we’re laying them with a modest sum for value.  It’s quite possible their odds will drift after early trouble, and we’ll be able to lock in a reasonable profit regardless of their eventual position.

At 8/1, England are worth backing.  They’ve taken a risk by bringing along Twenty20 specialists but we think it’ll work out when those players are mixed up with England’s finest, like Pietersen, Flintoff and Collingwood.  Their tails will be up after a tremendous one-day series against India and 8/1 offers very good value for the only team with good experience in this version of the game.

Elsewhere, we’re not taking the bet but New Zealand will tempt many at 8/1.  They’re a good side who will beat many on their day but we’re not sure they’ll adapt quickly enough to the 20-over format and we think that, as ever, their consistency will be a problem.  Semi-finals are probable but no further for the Black Caps.  India and Pakistan don’t seem to be taking the tournament so seriously but India especially look like a good value bet at 12/1.  We’ve put on a little because they have a more talented squad than many give them credit for.

In the individual player bets, we’ve only backed a small number of players as we’re really not sure how Twenty20 cricket will play out at the international level.  It would be criminal not to back Australia’s brutal big-hitter Matthew Hayden at 20/1, and South Africa’s Graeme Smith offers similar value.  On the bowling side, the slower bowlers – spinners or dibbly-dobblers like Paul Collingwood – have performed better than the fast bowlers in domestic cricket, but we still like the 20/1 you can get on Shane Bond of New Zealand, who is a genuine strike bowler and will relish the challenge.

England have brought along some Twenty20 specialists, including Darren Maddy and Jeremy Snape.  There are a couple who offer value in the betting, even though many will be no more than useful contributors when the class steps up a level.  James Kirtley is a real bargain at 50/1 to be top wicket taker.  His spell in the Test side a few years ago was more successful than many remember and he is one of the best county bowlers at the death.  With several bigger-name bowlers likely to operate from the other end, Kirtley may benefit from batsmen trying to be over-aggressive.  In the batting, Owais Shah is at 100/1 to be top run-scorer and has proved at both domestic and international level that he has the potential to make a big impact.  He played a very useful innings on Twenty20 finals day and, in a form of the game where many wickets usually fall, the middle order batsmen won’t suffer from the shortage of game time that makes backing them look unattractive in regular one-day cricket.

Betting Summary:

• Lay (bet against) Australia to win World Cup (2/1)
• Back England to win World Cup (8/1)
• Modest bet on India to win World Cup (12/1)
• Back Shane Bond and James Kirtley to be top wicket-taker (20/1 and 50/1 respectively)
• Back Matthew Hayden, Graeme Smith and Owais Shah to be top run-scorer (20/1, 20/1 and 100/1 respectively)

Sportinvestor is flush with money this week after making a late, late decision to back Argentina in the Rugby World Cup opener on Friday.  It was a good weekend for the Southern Hemisphere teams all told and the Europeans will have to raise their game if they want to challenge for the trophy.

We think that it is difficult to see beyond New Zealand for the trophy, particularly after their demolition of Italy on Saturday.  Ireland vs Argentina will be an intriguing tussle and the odds might just offer a bit of value in backing the Irish – we shall see!  Elsewhere, Samoa looked a decent outfit and might rattle England later in the tournament but it’s difficult to see Canada repeating their strong performance when they take on the Aussies.