Your Guide to US Election Night
House of Representatives
Below is a guide to the early stages of the election night in the House, so that you know what the results actually mean.
(By the way, late Republican surge – blame Kerry and Rove between them – mean the Dems are sweating on the previously expected Senate results in Montana, NJ, Rhode Island (how did Chafee come back in the polls?!?!) and Maryland)
Out of the early House districts to declare (Kentucky and Indiana), look out for KY-3, KY-4, IN-2, IN-8, IN-9:
KY-3 Northup (Repub) defending. In some ways it’s a surprise that the Republicans are hoping to hold this seat but a Democratic gain would be quite an important indicator that they should sneak into the lead.KY-4 Democrats are hoping they might grab this one and it should signify a strong tide towards them (easy House victory). KY-2 is similar.
Indiana is more perilous for the Republicans than Kentucky, being in the Midwest. The three key districts being defended by Republicans are IN-2 (Chocola), IN-8 (Hostettler) and IN-9 (Sodrel). If the Democrats can get a couple of these, they’ll be in for a very good night as it’ll indicate big gains in Ohio and Pennsylvania in the next tranche. Conversely, if Democrat incumbent Julia Carson loses her relatively close race in IN-7 then things will be bad for her party.An hour after Kentucky and Indiana, polls close in, amongst others, Ohio, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Illinois.
From a Senate point of view, Ohio and Pennsylvania are key pickups for the Democrats, but Santorum and DeWine are unlikely to stage late rallies for the GOP.
Democrats are chasing up to 6 seats in Ohio, which – as ever – will be a key bellweather states. More than 2 gains here will be effectively curtains for the Republicans. It is quite conceivable that they will lose the House while voting is still taking place on the west coast. OH-18 is a must win if Dems are to take the House, it’ll be a knife edge (Rep advantage) if they fail to take OH-15 and they’ll have a very good night if they take any of OH-1, OH-2, OH-7.
In Connecticut, Republican incumbents Simmons (CT-2) and Shays (CT-4) are likely losers. If they both lose, the GOP will be handing the Democrats more than a knife-edge majority and you can go to bed. If Johnson loses her race too (CT-5 - suprisingly a toss-up although she has been re-elected 12 times before), despite spending more money, the Republicans are in deep, deep trouble.
The Pennsylvania suburbs have turned into unlikely battlegrounds as GOP incumbents struggle to hang on.
PA-7 and PA-10 are a likely gain for Democrat challengers. Failures here will probably be further evidence that the Republicans have done better than expected.In PA-6, Jim Gerlach is in a real toss-up and defeat will worry many other incumbents who thought they might just survive.
If Melissa Hart loses PA-4, our predictions of a landslide will almost certainly be spot on.
What if the Democrats start losing races they are expecting to win – eg PA-7, PA-10, OH-15, OH18? How do we know how bad their night is going to be? The answer will lie in Georgia and Illinois:In GA-8 and GA-12, Democrat incubents John Barrow and Jim Marshall aren’t entirely sure of victory. Defeat will likely show that the Democrats won’t be making much headway tonight. If Melissa Bean loses in IL-8, then they could even lose seats. But, staying in Illinois, if Tammy Duckworth wins in IL-6 then it’ll most likely be a big night for the Democrats.
Later in the night, it’s looking like we could possibly see massive shocks in Idaho (district 1) and Wyoming. If the Democrats make those advances into core Republican territory, all bets on a landslide will be off.
Senate
The Democrats have a harder job keeping the Senate. Your author got superb odds on them winning both Houses during the Summer, when conventional wisdom eschewed such a notion. But it’s still quite likely that they’ll just fall short on the Senate.
The problem is that they need a net gain of 6. Pennsylvania and Ohio are safe pickups from Rik Santorum and Mike DeWine. That means they need six out of Missouri, Virginia, Rhode Island, Montana, Tennessee, New Jersey and Maryland.
There are late jitters, but overall expectations are that New Jersey (Menendez is a sitting Democrat), Rhode Island and Maryland should be safe for the Democrats. That means they need three out of Missouri, Viginia, Montana and Tennessee.
Montana has looked an easy Democrat gain for months after incumbent Conrad Burns was heavily implicated in the Abramoff scandal. But the race has tightened considerably and it’s now a toss-up.
Missouri has been described as “unpollable” and is neck and neck between Jim Talent (Republican incumbent) and Claire McCaskill. SportInvestor thinks it will probably be carried on a Democratic tide.
Neither Tennessee or Virginia should really be in play and the difficulties facing Bob Corker and George Allen indicate the dire straits that some polls have put the GOP in. Both seem absolute toss-ups to me, though I think Webb will probably just squeak through in Virginia. I therefore expect the Democrats to hit 51 seats but to lose in Tennessee.
Just a quick note on Arizona. It’s worth watching how Pederson performs against Republican incumbent Kyl. I’m surprised he hasn’t got closer, having tipped it as a long-shot gain in the Summer, but we may see a tighter result than the polls are predicting. Keep an eye on it.
Political Debate
This page is an expansion of Sport Investor to cover political debate. From a betting perspective, politics is a rich and interesting market for two reasons.
First, many different companies provide regular polls, documenting (or sometimes creating) sudden shifts in public opinion, which means the markets fluctuate far more than sporting markets do before an event. In many ways, political markets are “in play” for longer, and that means big profits can be made.
Second, many punters bet on politics with what can be a superficial or media-driven knowledge of the issues. This is dangerous and means that many odds are far more generous than they might appear. For example, those who backed Chris Huhne at 800/1 for the Lib Dem leadership earlier this year were able to make a 4-figure profit on the event regardless of the eventual winner.
On this page, Sport Investor hopes to stimulate a discussion of political issues. Because of the success of the highly-recommended politicalbetting site in analysing UK politics, this page will concentrate more on international politics. The big questions at the moment are whether the the Democrats can wrestle control of Congress from the Republicans in America (a superb reference site is electoral-vote) and whether the next French President will be Nicholas Sarkozy or Segolene Royal, assuming that both are able to secure their respective parties’ nomination.
Please join in the discussion using the comments box below.
